Saturday, March 1, 2008

The Media and Reality: Favoritism and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies

The media is a favorite scapegoat for politicians and government officials who feel they are receiving unfavorable or unfair coverage.

But the concept of unfair coverage is a recent phenomenon. In the 19th century, newspapers typically reflected the bias of their publishers and put out all sorts of rag sheets with openly admitted prejudices.

The phenomenon of American cultural life included a plethora of different publications in pluralistic competition with each other. You could say checks and balances occured within the media as well as the government.

In the 20th and 21st centuries, however, particularly with the advent of television, we have witnessed a consolidation of media outlets into four or five major conglomerates. In such a situation, the concept of fairness becomes much more relevant.

Politicians are often correct in their assertions of unfairness, and the claims of Hillary Clinton's campaign in this regard are not without merit. However, the favorable coverage of Barack Obama does not result from a built-in prejudice against women as some have claimed. Rather, it is caused primarily by the dynamics of a capitalistic society. Put simply, newspapers print what sells, and TV coverage is aimed at favorable ratings. The phenomenon of a young, charismatic candidate upending the Democratic establishment and the presumed victory of Senator Clinton makes a very good story.

However, my concern is not with this understandable dynamic, but with the ability of the media to influence the story, to change the reality of the situation in a self-fulfilling prophecy. People are easily influenced by "horse race" coverage, and the touting of momentum often ignores statistical realities.

As we go into the Texas and Ohio primaries, it is worth reminding people that Hillary Clinton's and Barack Obama's delegate counts are only about one percentage point apart. The superdelegates will definitely determine the outcome and could easily affect the final decision in either direction.

The current race for the nomination, for the Clinton campaign, is not unlike this year's Super Bowl. Hillary Clinton is on the 20 yard line with two minutes to play. She needs a touchdown to win. That result remains within her grasp.