Saturday, January 19, 2008

Nevada and Rolling the Dice

It's somehow fitting to see the role Nevada is playing in the Democratic primaries. Former President Bill Clinton said we would be rolling the dice if we elected Barack Obama. Despite the controversy generated by the statement, the argument is valid for a number of reasons.

1) Power changes people. Different people react to power, especially immense power, in different ways. For example, Dick Cheney, though admittedly an arch conservative, was viewed with a degree of respect before he became Vice President. Since then, his efforts to aggrandize himself and the executive branch, combined with his blatant warmongering, and his disregard for fundamental elements of the Constitution, have transformed him into a different person. His character now is repugnant to most Americans.

Barack Obama's youth makes him especially vulnerable to the effects of immense power.

2) Politics is a game of images, and the things people say to get elected may be vastly different from their inner agenda. Presidential candidate George W. Bush said he wanted to be a uniter not a divider. We all know how quickly that promise was discarded.

3) The best barometer in evaluating political candidates, given the two points above, is their prior record. There seems to be an element of calculation, compared to inner beliefs, in Barack Obama's record. For example, he voted "present" instead of yea or nay on many votes while he was a state legislator. You can't vote "present" when you're President. You have to take a stand. That stand is harder to discern than for someone with a record like Hillary Clinton.

So, yes, there is an element of rolling the dice with Barack Obama. I'm not saying he couldn't be a good or even great President, only that it's difficult to render a verdict at this stage.